Chapter 19. Calculating The Baseball Percentages

Ball players say a team has to play "baseball percentage" to be successful. They're right. But, what is "baseball percentage ?"

A Manager, first of all, is something like a checker player. As he directs the team on offense, he very often has a choice of moves. In a given situation, he knows from experience that move A has a better chance of succeeding than move B. If he makes move A, he's playing the "percentages." If he makes a different move, he's playing "against the percentages."

A number of factors affect the baseball percentage, including:

The position of the runners
The ball and strike count
The inning
The score
The strength of the Pitcher
The strength (or weakness) of the Batter

Examine, if you will, each of these factors.

Runners

It's easier for a runner to score from 3rd base, than from 2nd, or 1st, or Home (when he is the batter). If the runner is on 3rd, he can score in one of many ways-a deep fly ball, a deep ground ball, any kind of a base hit, an infield error, a wild pitch or passed ball.

From 2nd, it's a little tougher. As a matter of fact, it will almost always take at least a good single to deliver the run.

And from 1st, it's tougher yet. The Offense will need nothing less than a good double.

From Home, only a Home Run will do the trick.

The baseball percentage position is obvious.

The Ball and Strike Count

If the count is 3 balls 0 strikes, what are the chances of the batter getting a walk? What are the pitcher's chances of getting a strike-out?

To be "even" in this situation, the batter could let two pitches go by. The odds are that one of them would be a Ball. To strike the batter out, on the other hand, the pitcher would have to throw three strikes in a row. Obviously, the odds again favor the Batter.

The Inning

When a team first comes to bat in a nine-inning game, it will have at least 27 opportunities to score. If the first man up gets on base, an attempt to steal 2nd would be less risky than, say, in the ninth inning with the score tied and only 1 out left.

The Score

It's the object of the offense to make every move possible that will add to the original 27 opportunities to score; the defense to keep the opportunities at the minimum.

When a team is behind 0-to-4, then, it cannot very well use the Sacrifice Bunt or take chances on the base paths, else it will be aiding the defense. If a team is ahead, however, it can risk giving away an out here and there to put a runner on base, or to advance runners.

THE STRENGTH OF THE PITCHER

If the pitcher has just walked three men in a row, would you expect him to suddenly regain his control and pour three consecutive strikes over the plate? Hardly. A good "percentage" play would be a "take" on the first strike pitched to the fourth batter. If the pitch is a strike, the batter is still not too bad off. If the pitch is a ball, the pitcher then has to throw at least twice more to get the batter out.

If, on the other hand, the batter swung on the first pitch, the inning-depending on die number of outs-could be over.

The baseball "percentage" here is to make an obviously "wild" pitcher throw as many pitches as possible. There's no risk involved when a run is "walked" in.

THE STRENGTH OF THE BATTER

The baseball percentage move with regard to batters is not too hard to judge. In a squeeze bunt situation, the question is, simply: "can the boy at bat bunt?" If the boy is a poor bunter, but a fairly reliable hitter, the baseball percentages would seem to be to "hit away."

With the baseball percentage in mind, now, go on to the next chapter. Check the list of offensive plays and take a look at how, when and why they would be used under normal circumstances.

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